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Friday, April 19, 2013

Intelligent perspective on Apple stock for April 2013

Apple stock has been in free fall since end of last year. It has fallen more than 30% from its 52 week high. While a detailed analysis would reveal the intrinsic value of the stock, here are some quick numbers to see if it is a buy.


The Metrics

The Quick Metrics calculation of the stock reveals the following:

Metric Apple Stock Buy/ Hold/ Sell
Price to Earnings
8.85
Buy
Price to Book
2.89
Sell
Profit Margin
25.35%
Buy
Dividend Yield
2.5%
Buy/ Hold
Payout ratio
12%
Buy
Free Cash Flow
44B
Buy
Graham Index
9.63
Almost Buy
Total Current Assets
72.3B
Buy
Current P/E X P/B
25.5765
Not Yet a Buy


An Intelligent Buy

At this point, all numbers indicate that the stock is nearing a strong buy if it continues to fall. Given the numbers, the stock would become an “Smart Buy” when the share price falls to $376.13 per share. Lets see if it falls a little bit more to get to those levels.

Also, the P/E X P/B needs to be below 22.5 to be an “Intelligent Buy”. That requires a much lower stock price of $366.3. It is all upto the earnings report, if the stock falls to those levels. Not sure what the chances of that are.

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