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Tuesday, August 6, 2013

Relating P/E to Earnings Growth

Many years ago, Benjamin Graham suggested that the Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E) or "The Multiple" was related to the growth in earnings year over year forecast for a stock. Roughly, the formula translated to

Value = Current (Normal) Earnings X (8.5 plus twice the expected annual growth rate)

This was summarized in the following table


Expected Growth Rate
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.2%
10.0%
14.3%
20.0%
Growth in 10 years
0.0
28.0%
63.0%
100.0%
159.0%
280.0%
319.0%
Multiplier of current earnings
8.5
13.5
18.5
22.9
28.5
37.1
48.5

This definitely allows us to understand the kind of growth anticipated just by looking at the P/E.

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