Simplistic technical analysis for NFLX (October 26th 2014)

It's already more than 10 days since Netflix fell through the bottom after announcing its latest earnings. Last week based on fundamental analysis, I proposed an intrinsic price of $390 odd. The stock has moved rapidly towards its intrinsic price.

There is not much to analyze when looking at long term trends, and we can see that the stock is steadily rising. I had suggested in my last week's blog post that price would rise above 375 in next 4 weeks. It has already gone past that in 1 week, which implies bulls are seeing a long term potential for the stock above $400.

Also, when focused on last 10 days pricing, we can see that the stock has crossed the 4 and 6 day moving averages and is approaching the 8 day average, which I suspect it will cross the coming week.

Based on the above, my amateur predictions are that the stock will approach its intrinsic value of $390 this coming week. I do feel that for $390 price to be validated, a lot more news on the international side of the business needs to show up as positive, but purely based on momentum, we should see the price rise to around $400 to $405 in the next 2 to 3 weeks. We may see some short term profit taking at 400 as well, which seems to be the next logical resistance point.